Factsheet: Uncertainty Assessment tools

Definition

A Uncertainty assessment functionality includes all types of functionality that allows uncertainty to be explicitly addressed within AquaStress. The following may be distinguished:

Tools and methods that help to determine sources of uncertainty qualitatively;
Tools and methods to quantify uncertainty.
- In data
- In models
- In data and models
Tools that visualize uncertainties;
Tools that help to identify sources of uncertainty within a participatory process (e.g. evaluation of the completeness of stakeholder analysis, discussion on unknown futures).

Application objectives

The objective of applying such tools is to determine, evaluate and communicate the quality of results (either qualitatively or quantitatively) and as such to provide a quality mark on the results expected from water stress mitigation options.

Pertinent participation process phase(s)

1- Starting organization

2- Actors analysis, context

3- Diagnostic of the current situation

4- Search of solutions

5- Implementation, evaluation

Application method

Uncertainty assessment is about quantifying the uncertainty in model results using the following methods:

Sensitivity Analysis (screening, local, global);
Error propagation equations (“Tier 1”);
Monte Carlo Analysis (“Tier 2”);
Expert Elicitation;
NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree);
Scenario Analysis;
PRIMA (Probabilistic fRamework of Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis);
Checklist for Model Quality Assistance;
Critical Review of Assumptions in models.

Each of the above methods has its application method

Application example(s)

Copenhagen County, 2000; Refsgaard et al., 2000
Action plan for the protection of groundwater against pollution by the County of Copenhagen.

Example tools

HarmoniRiB database (DHI,CEH, IRSA, RIZA); database designed to store data including their uncertainty data.
HarmoniRiB data uncertainty engine (open source, currently in the hands of UvA, but DHI,CEH, IRSA, RIZA have a say. Tool that can structurally assess data uncertainty, and allows production of "equally likely input data", allows analysis of Monte Carlo results. Soon to be available(http://194.119.202.82/HarmoniRiB/).

PEST parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis software - http://www.rockware.com/catalog/pages/freepest.html
Soon available: Harmoni-CA toolbox: http://www.harmoni-ca.info/toolbox/index.php

AquaStress contact(s)

AquaStress contact: Michiel Blind, RIZA, m.blind@riza.rws.minvenw.nl

Reference

A repository is under development by the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (integrated programme of research to support effective flood risk management) http://www.floodrisk.org.uk

The SAHRA Hydroarchive software exchange site was developed to allow the creators of hydrologic software to share their work with the general public. It offers researchers, practitioners and students the opportunity to give a larger audience access to their products in a more structured manner and, at the same time, allows them to benefit from the achievements of others. Use of individual software is allowed with acknowledgement, and depending on the individual terms of use. We hope that this initiative will lead to a greater interaction between researchers, practitioners and students within the hydrological community. http://www.sahra.arizona.edu/cgi-bin/hydroware/hydroware.pl?mode=displayCat&CAT1=4

PEST: Nonlinear parameter estimation is not new. Many books and papers have been devoted to the subject; subroutines are available in many of the well-known mathematical subroutine libraries. The user manual is available : http://epa.gov/ceampubl/tools/pest/PESTMAN.PDF

RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication: Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment(RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication Series, Volume 4); J.P. van der Sluijs, P.H.M. Janssen, A.C. Petersen, P. Kloprogge, J.S. Risbey, W. Tuinstra, J.R. Ravetz; http://www.nusap.net/downloads/toolcatalogue.pdf