Factsheet: Scenario methodology
Definition
A scenario is a description of a possible future situation of a system. Scenarios are used to explore future states of the system, and/or to assess the effects and robustness of intended policies. Scenarios to be examined should be constructed systematically, through logical reasoning and for likely or feasible alternatives. Context scenario analysis can include driving forces that cannot be manipulated at all, or not by those who conduct the analysis. Simulation software often supports scenario analysis.
Application objectives
Policy scenario: to think through which policies can and wich cannot bring you closer to your (more) ideal future. Context scenarios: evaluation of different alternatives/policies in possible future situations and for anticipating unexpected events (robustness, fall-back and no-regret options).
Pertinent participation process phase(s)
1- Starting organization
2- Actors analysis, context
3- Diagnostic of the current situation
4- Search of solutions
5- Implementation, evaluation
Application method
The basic methodology for scenario construction can be found in the references below. The process of creating scenarios can be an important tool for cooperation and building trust. Brainstorming, elaboration and prioritisation of driving forces and creation scenarios are well-suited in a workshop-like setting. Scenarios can be constructed together with stakeholders. As the focus is on possible futures of both system and environment the process enlightens the discussion about the problem, the delineation of the problem and the alternatives. It's a creative process so people go away from the conflict, which can help the process. Simulation models can be valuable tools for generating and evaluating scenarios interactively.
Application example(s)
See references.
Example tools
WaterStrategyMan (NTUA, to be negotiated) http://environ.chemeng.ntua.gr/wsm/
Delft Hydraulics http://www.wldelft.nl/soft/intro/index.html and DHI http://www.dhisoftware.com/software (standard modelling packages, proprietary)
Alterra software (project-specific applications, proprietary)
The US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources (IWR) has developed IWR-PLAN Decision Support Software to assist with the formulation and comparison of alternative plans (http://www.pmcl.com/iwrplan/SoftwareInfoDownload.asp).
Eururalis: to develop an interactive, user friendly meta-model for a balanced discussion on the future of European area from the perspective of sustainable development.
- Is a scenario study starting from four contrasting world visions Covers the EU25 in various detail
- Has a time horizon of three decades, in 10 years time steps: 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030
- Takes major driving forces to assess their impact
- Shows impacts for People, Planet, Profit indicators and offers integrative indicators
- Clarifies policy issues and role of policy measures
- Aims at policy makers, interest groups and researchers
http://www.eururalis.nl/default.htm
AquaStress contact(s)
Contact: None specified.
Reference
- Enserink, Bert, 2000, Building Scenarios for the University, International Transactions in Operational Research, Vol. 7, No. 6., pages 569-584.ISSN 0969-6016
- Heijden, Kees van der, 1996. Scenarios; the art of strategic conversation, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, ISBN: 0471966398, 320 pages.
- Rotmans, Jan, Marjolein van Asselt, Chris Anastasi, Sandra Greeuw, Joanne Mellors, Simone Peters, Dale Rothman, Nicole Rijkens, 2000, Visions for a sustainable Europe, Futures, 32, 2000, 809-831
